dlwicks@sbcglobal.net

Want to know how to win or place more in the Metro Seniors Weekly Tournaments?

What increases your chances of winning or at least placing in the money?

Want to know if you score is likely to be a 1^st or 2^nd place for your flight?

Bottom line – Or Short Answers

• If your net score is lower that the course rating, you are probably going to win some flight prize money.  Example – Course Rating 68.5     Net Score 66    Probably wins.
• If your net score is 2 to 3 strokes below the course rating, winning chances improve significantly.
• Frequent players are more likely to win, more chances, and perhaps improved play.
• Very few players win more than once in a season.  Competition is significant.
• 15 to 20 different players win their flights over 25 tournaments.

There are several factors will increase your chances of winning in your flight.

• Play more outings
  • Members playing less than 10 outings won less than 10% of flight prize money
  • Members playing 15 or more outings won 74% of flight prizes
• Improve your game
  • Playing more is a big factor in improving
  • Practice – especially putting and short game
• Play strategically
  • Select the best tees for your scoring (usually forward tees)
  • Use rules properly for lost balls and hazards
  • Plan you shots for reality not wishful thinking
  • Play more low attendance outings – less competition

 

For those of you who want more data, read on.

Here is some real data that may help.

Actual data for 2017 for Division 1 (Friday, 18 hole). We had about 130 members for 2017 and played in 24 events (one rainout). Handicap distribution for Division 1 is a little higher than other divisions, but the trends and concepts will be the same.

For 2017, First Place Flight winners were well distributed. Between 15 to 20 different players won a 1^st place in each flight. There were a few 2 time winners, and only 4 with 3 or more wins for the season. No one player is dominating any flight.

		1 Time	2 Time	3 or more	Total
		Wins	Wins	Wins	Players
First Place	A Flight	8 Players	6 Players	1 Player	15
	B Flight	16 Players	4 Players		20
	C Flight	15 Players	3 Players	1 Player	19
	D Flight	11 Players	3 Players	2 Players	16

Almost all of the first place flight winners in every flight played at least 15 or more rounds.

One important point, handicap is calculated at about your best 25 percentile – it is the about the average of the best 50% of your history. So matching or just beating your handicap can be a 10% to 20% event. Beating your handicap significantly – more than 5 or 6 points could be a 1 or 2% event.

Winning a flight once or twice a year is likely. Winning three or four times per year is very unlikely. Reduced competition, fewer players, course conditions, weather, will all be factors that influence who is winning and the winning scores.

What scores does it take to win a flight?

To win or place in your flight you will usually have to play better than your course handicap for the tees played.

Net Scores – Rating and Flight Placement
		Net Score
		– Tee/Course
		Rating
1st Place – All Flights		-0.8
2nd Place – All Flights		1.2
3rd Place – All Flights		3.5
4th Place – All Flights		4.1
5th Place – All Flights		5.3

To take 1^st place in any flight, on average your net score would have to be about 1 stroke better that the course rating. Example – with a course rating of 68.8 a net score of 68 would put you close to winning. A net score of 64 would give you a very good chance of placing first.

Scores of 70, 72, 73 and 74 would give you an “average” chance of placing in 2^nd through 5^th place respectively. This placement is more competitive and you will usually need to be 2 to 4 strokes lower to really be competitive.

But we know that flights A – D have different competition. Looking only in 1^st or 2^nd in the different flights the competition is tougher.

	Flt	Net Score
		– Tee/Course
		Rating
1st Place	A	-1.3
	B	-1.0
	C	0.4
	D	2.7
2nd Place	A	0.0
	B	0.3
	C	3.7
	D	6.4

Essentially scoring a 1^st place in A, B and C flight requires a net score about 1 to 4 strokes LOWER that the course rating. Example – a net score of 67 vs a course rating of 68.5 gives an “average” chance to win (68.5 course rating – 1.3 = 67.2). Getting to a net score pf 65 would be more likely to win.

2^nd place in A or B flight would require about 68 or lower (68.5 – 0.0).

By contrast, D flight winners and 2^nd place in D and C flights can be higher that the Course rating and still win. Why? Division 1 D flight frequently has low attendance. Fewer players, less competition, and higher scores will win. Flight C also has a little lower attendance and more variability in players skills week to week.